In Lombardy, house prices are expected to grow by 5.5% in 2022, while purchases and sales are expected to drop by 2.5% compared to 2021
Just under 50% of national real estate investment over the past 10 years has come to Lombardy, with more than €37 billion over the 2010-2021 period and €44 billion considering 2022, due to the driving force of Milan
Lombardy is the first region in urban regeneration with 21 Km2 recovered by 2022, four times the Italian average
In 2022, Lombardy is confirmed as Italy’s most dynamic region for real estate purchases and sales. But there are lights and shadows on the horizon. While transactions are still expected to fall, prices will continue their upward trend. Highlighting this is the “Report on the new Lombardy suburbs” by Scenari Immobiliari and Urban Up|Unipol Group, which shows that Lombardy is expected to close 2022 with 158 thousand residential property purchases and sales, equal to more than 22 percent of the national total (710 thousand), a slight decrease of 2.5 percent compared to the 2021 financial year. However, far better than the Italian average, which is expected to be negative 5.3 percent.
More than twice as many houses are transacted in Lombardy as in Latium, the second region with 73 thousand exchanges, Emilia Romagna (the third region with 66 thousand transactions), Veneto and Piedmont (with expectations of 65.7 and 63.5 thousand purchases and sales, respectively, by the end of 2022).
Expectations in 2023 for the Lombard market
In 2023, however, negotiations are expected to fall again at a more pronounced pace; operators estimate a further 6 percent contraction, on the same speed, however, as the expected decrease at the national level, when total purchases and sales are expected to slip to 670 thousand.
In contrast, prices are expected to continue in their upward trend, triggered from 2015 three years ahead of the rest of the country, except for 2020. In 2021, the average real estate values of the residential sector recorded in the Lombard territory confirmed the sector’s good health by realizing an increase of about two percentage points. “The estimates for the end of 2022 are much greater and bring the positive change on an annual basis to 5.5 percent,” reads n the study, which then specifies that overall, for the current year, expectations are for further confirmation of the trend of indicators for the capitals and a slight slowdown for the provincial territories, as a rebound from the boost obtained in 2021.
Lombardy’s provinces: where house prices have risen the most
The region’s primary residential market is Milan, the second nationwide after Rome. In 2022, purchases and sales rose from 17 percent to 19 percent of the total in the Lombardy territory and from 62 percent to 63 percent in the provincial capitals. In practice, one in five buying and selling takes place in Milan.
Brescia, with a forecast of about 3,700 transactions among the other Lombard provinces, is confirmed in second place for dynamism, followed by Bergamo and Monza (2,700 and 1,950 exchanges). Como and Varese weigh 2 percent of the total regional capitals in terms of turnover, with a steadily growing trend. Cremona, Lecco, Lodi, Mantua, and Pavia register a turnover of 1 percent of the total and a growing trend in transactions. Sondrio is the last of Lombardy’s provincial capitals in terms of turnover, on which it weighs less than 1 percent, and in terms of the number of purchases and sales (they represent about 1 percent).
Milano
In Milan, semi-central areas are again the preferred lettings in 2022, and household pressure has pushed up prices.
Other Lombard cities
In Lombardy’s other capitals, the complete substitution in terms of price growth dynamics of peripheral areas for those further inland has yet to be as pronounced as it was in the regional capital.
The driving force of Lombardy on the Italian real estate market
“Slightly less than 50 percent of national real estate investments in the last ten years have arrived in Lombardy, with more than 37 billion euros in the period 2010-2021 and 44 billion considering 2022, due to the driving force of Milan and a wider provincial fabric that continues to offer the greatest opportunities for projects, investments, and careers. This is also thanks to the support of effective management of public affairs and an extensive network of infrastructures and services,” said Francesca Zirnstein, general manager of Scenari Immobiliari.
After the last two years of euphoria and fears, the need to work on defining processes capable of guiding future land transformation initiatives with a view to regeneration, not just redevelopment, emerges with greater importance.
Lombardy and urban regeneration
The term “urban regeneration” refers to a program of redevelopment and rehabilitation of the housing stock at the urban level aimed at raising the levels of quality of life from the social, environmental, and urban-building points of view. These intervention programs, referring to the existing housing stock, limiting land consumption, and protecting the territory, understood in its human, landscape and environmental components, are strongly consistent with current sustainability issues. In a long-term time frame, assumed between 2023 and 2035, the significant transformations of a building and urban nature could impact the Lombardy real estate market of about 224 billion euros of added value, concentrated for almost 50 percent in the residential sector.
“Lombardy, from the point of view of territorial regeneration, takes home a new national record with more than 21 square kilometers recovered during 2022. The highest share of recovery with 32 percent in the province of Milan, and especially in the capital,” explained Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari, who then concluded by saying that “the region precedes Veneto (16 square kilometers) and Emilia Romagna (15.5) and is four times higher than the national average.”
